流动性黑洞

理性恐慌，流动性黑洞和国有股减持之谜

Rational Panics , Liquidity Black Holes and the State-Share Paradox

鉴于此，本文着重分析流动性黑洞的形成机制，并分别从宏观和微观视角对流动性黑洞问题进行实证研究，然后提出防范流动性黑洞的政策建议。

In the view of this background , this paper put an emphasis to analyse the form mechanism of liquidity black holes , then conducts the empirical research of the liquidity black holes from the perspective of the macroscopic and microcosmic .

正是这种正反馈的交易机制，自我增强了预期归一化的速度与程度，导致流动性黑洞的出现。

It is the positive feedback trading and self-reinforcing mechanism , which enforced the expectations normalized speed and degree .

其次，在上述羊群效应测度基础上，本文运用固定效应的面板数据回归检测机构羊群效应与流动性黑洞的相关性。

Based on the empirical analysis on short-term institutional herding behavior , apply the panel data regression of fixed effect to test the correlation between herding behavior and liquidity black hole .

接着，从不同理论视角（流动性黑洞视角、非线性视角）讨论了重尾现象，通过正反馈机制、非线性对重尾现象进行机理上的探究。

Then , we discuss the heavy-tailed phenomena from different theoretical perspectives ( liquidity black hole perspective , non-linear perpective ), and research the occurrence mechanism of heavy-tailed phenomena by mechanism of positive feedback and non-linear .

在交易循环到达一定的极限值时，一旦有刺激因素，市场流动性就会瞬间崩溃，流动性黑洞出现。

Once the transaction cycle to reach a certain limit , if some incentives happen , market liquidity will instantly collapse , liquidity black hole appears .

从时间纵向角度来看，市场的波动性也越来越大，市场流动性出现极端短缺的概率越来越大，流动性黑洞现象更加频繁。

From the time of vertical perspective , the volatility of the market is also growing . The probability of liquidity black hole phenomenon is increased more frequent .

本文在深刻认识和探索不确定性、风险、金融效率以及它们之间相互联系基础上，解析中国现阶段存在的流动性风险，即流动性过剩、局部交易流动性不足隐患和流动性黑洞危机。

After deeply understanding the uncertainty , risk and financial efficiency and their inter-linkages , this paper focus on analyzing the current liquidity risks in China , which are liquidity surplus , hidden dangers of liquidity shortage of transaction and liquidity black holes crisis .