宏观经济周期

浅析宏观经济周期波动及其治理

On Periodic Fluctuation of Macro-economy and its Countermeasures

其投资选择随着行业景气度和宏观经济周期的变化而变化。

Internationalization , The investment choice as the boom of industry and macro economic cycle changes .

电力行业对宏观经济周期波动的反映相当灵敏，其发展态势与宏观经济的运行态势具有一致性。

Electric power industry reflects macroeconomic cycles quite sensitively , its trend of development is consistent with that of macroeconomics .

宏观经济周期波动引发的各种微观经济组织出现财务风险或危机的现象，已成为一种不以人们意志为转移的客观经济规律。

The phenomenon that macroeconomic cyclical fluctuations make various micro-economic organizations into financial risk or crisis is an objective economic discipline .

经济周期理论从不同角度探讨了宏观经济周期性波动的原因及传导机制，是调节宏观经济波动以及进行宏观经济评价与预警的基础。

Business cycle theory explains the causes of business cycle and the propagate mechanisms which are the basis to make policy and evaluate the national economy .

两种方法相互补充，而本文的模型借鉴了两种模型的优点，在信用约束的条件下内生化信用风险，以此研究信用风险对宏观经济周期波动的影响。

Those two methods complement each other . The model in this dissertation draws on the advantages of both models and investigates the impact of the credit risk on the macroeconomic fluctuations .

巴塞尔协议下的风险管理机制只是一种微观风险管理机制，要降低银行面临的系统性风险就要建立起逆经济周期的着眼于规避宏观经济周期性、系统性风险的拨备计提制度。

The Basel Accord risk management mechanism is only a micro-risk management mechanism , to reduce the systemic risks , banks should establish a mechanism that counter-cyclical macro-economic and focusing on avoiding the cyclical and systemic risk .

住宅金融周期性风险是与宏观经济周期密切联系的一种系统风险。它对各国的金融乃至经济发展产生了极大的负面影响。

The periodical risk of residential finance is a kind of systemic risk , it has close contaction with macroscopical economic cycle , and has produced great negative effects on finance and even the whole economic development of various countries .

土耳其和巴西等国已经与通货膨胀进行了多年的斗争，现在他们面临着真实的通胀风险，这并非宏观经济周期带来的结果，而是为金融领域纾困的需要。

Countries like Turkey and Brazil , which have been fighting inflation for years , are now facing a real inflationary danger that does not result from a macroeconomic cycle but from the need to bail out the financial sector .

文中首先对宏观经济周期以及宏观经济指标走势的研究，得出结论：宏观经济指标通过作用于金融指数，对各类基金的收益率产生不同程度的影响。

First of all , study on economic cycle of macroscopic indicator tendency , and draw the conclusion : The macroscopical economic indicator has a in various degree impact on earning ratio of all kinds of funds acting on the banking index .

本文通过对银行自身因素、借款者因素、监管层监管因素和国际因素等四个方面来阐述宏观经济周期对商业银行信贷风险的影响。

This article will describe the impact of the macroeconomic fluctuations on the credit risk of commercial banks from the following four aspects : " factors of the banks ", " factors of the borrower ", " factors of the regulation " and " international factors " .

近十几年来我国宏观经济运行周期性波动十分明显。

In more than ten years the periodic fluctuation of China 's macro economy operation is very obvious .

一段时间以来，我国政府主要是运用相机抉择的财政政策来调控宏观经济的周期性波动。

We mainly apply the discretionary fiscal policy to balance the macroeconomic cyclical fluctuations for a long time .

然而令人担忧的是，一旦宏观经济出现周期性调整，这种下降的势头是否还会保持下去。

What is worrying is that if the downward trend of bad assets can be continue when there is a cyclical macroeconomic adjustment .

宏观经济的周期性波动则受工资率、企业商品的市场价格与市场需求，资本、技术等生产要素的成本等因素的影响。

The cyclical fluctuation of macroeconomic is affected by salary rate , market price of company commodity , market demand of company commodity , etc.

劳动力供给方面，其影响因素有人口因素、劳动力参与率和宏观经济的周期波动等。

From the aspect of labor supply , the factors consist of population , labor participation rate , and the cyclical fluctuation of macroeconomic growth .

经济周期是各宏观经济变量周期波动的综合反映，是各国经济发展过程中不可避免的经济现象。

Business cycle is integrated reflection of the cyclic fluctuation on part of all economic variables , which is inevitable in the process of economic development in every country .

但在技术进步的作用下，市场机制使不变资本与可变资本的增长速率不一致，从而使宏观经济发生周期性变化。

However , under the influence of technological advancement , the growth speed of variable capital is not the same as that of constant capital , which leads to periodical changes in macro-economy .

因此，已经启动的新一轮宏观经济景气周期，将为证券市场发展奠定良好的宏观基础，并产生十分积极的影响。

So , the prosperous cycle of a new round of macro-economy starting , will establish the good macroscopical foundation for the development of securities market , and exert a very positive influence .

资本监管可以从直接和间接两个方面影响宏观经济及经济周期。

Capital regulation can affect the macroeconomic and business cycle from directly and indirectly .

这一理论不仅极大地冲击了传统凯恩斯主义的经济周期理论，而且也在很大程度上超越了货币主义和新古典宏观经济学的经济周期理论。

It not only chocks seriously Keynesianism business cycle theory , but also beats business cycle theory of Monetarism and Neoclassical Macroeconomics .

但由于公司业绩还受到宏观经济、行业周期等因素影响，仅从公司绩效角度考虑独立董事制度有效性略显单薄。

But the company performance is also affected by other factors such as macroeconomic , profession cycle , so only taking independent director factor into consideration is limited .

而景气理论则是在周期波动理论的基础上，构建景气指数来监测宏观经济受经济周期波动的影响。

In the foundation of cycle undulatory theory , the booming theory founded the booming index , using it to monitor the influence of macroscopic economy by cyclical undulation .

众所周知，宏观经济运行具有周期性特点，在繁荣、衰退、萧条、复苏四种状态中循环往复，所以能够通过相关数据和经济表现对经济景气进行必要的监测预警。

As we all know , the macroeconomic has periodic characteristic , going in a repeated cycle of prosperity , decline , depression , and recovery . So we can make necessary economic prediction based on the relevant data and economic performance .

中日韩三国主要宏观经济变量与经济周期波动的关联性研究

The Association Study on Main Macroeconomic Variables and Fluctuation of Business Cycle among China , Japan and Korea

结果表明：在宏观经济衰退期，周期型行业较以前显著降低了债务比率；

The evidences show that cyclical industry debt decreases significantly as the macroeconomic changes from expansion to recession .

宏观原因主要是经济周期、失业、通货膨胀和收入分配的不公平。

While the macroscopic cause is mainly economic cycle , unemployment , inflation and unfairness of distribution of income .

由于房地产业的波动并非稳定不变，而是如宏观经济一样经历着周期波动变化。

Just as the national economic has cycle , the volatility of the real estate industry is not stable and unchanging .

电力行业是一个与宏观经济相关性良好的周期性行业，电力行业的发展前景和宏观经济形势息息相关。

Electric industry is a cyclical industry with good relation with macroeconomy . Its prospect is a closed link with macroeconomic situation .

各国经济增长与发展历程表明，经济波动是经济增长过程的伴生现象。与宏观经济运行过程的周期波动一样，房地产业在发展过程中也客观存在着周期波动现象。

The experiences of economic growth and development in many countries indicate that economic fluctuation is a concomitant phenomenon of economic growth .