降水概率

本文介绍以Gamma分布为基础的降水概率指标以及相应的旱涝级别。

The index of precipitation probability and the grade of dryness / wet-ness based on Gamma distribution are presented in this paper .

介绍了两种降水概率预报方法，一种是根据多因子场相似原理作降水概率预报，另一种是用武汉区域气象中心的MAPS降水资料作降水概率预报。

In this paper , two methods of precipitation probability forecast are introduced . One is multiple factorial analogous method , another statistic method of wuhan MAPS NWP .

全国248站中&大雨以上降水概率MOS预报及其因子设计

MOS probability forecasts of moderate and heavy precipitation for 248 stations nationwide

沈阳市降水概率预报服务系统是在日本数值预报的基础上应用多种统计方法建立MOS预报方程，对其预报结果应用概率回归集成制作降水概率预报。

Shenyang precipitation probability forecasting service system could provide with precipitation probability prediction , based on REEP method and MOS forecasting equations from Japanese numerical weather prediction production and multiple statistical methods .

各站的小时极端降水概率分布均符合GPD和GEV，但GPD模型的拟合精度要优于GEV模型。

The probability distribution of hour-extreme-precipitation of each station is all in line with GPD and GEV , but GPD model shows better fitting accuracy than GEV model .

本文给出了全国中&大雨以上降水概率MOS预报的制作方法、样本过滤条件、预报因子的设计与推导、预报值后处理以及检验与误差原因分析。

The approach to produce MOS probability forecasts of moderate and heavy . precipitation is shown in the paper . So are the conditions to narrow sample size , design and derivation of predictors , procedure to adjust the forecast probabilities as well as verification and reasons for errors .

分县降水概率指导预报业务系统及其应用

Precipitation probability guidance forecast operational system for each county and its application

北京地区夏季降水概率预报业务应用研究

The Application Studies of Summer Precipitation Probability Forecasts in Beijing

汛期大～暴雨的降水概率预报模式

A Probability Forecast Model of Heavy Rainfall in Rainy Season

南昌市降水概率预报方法研究（二）

The Study of Precipitation Probability Forecast In Nanchang (ⅱ)

夏季降水概率预报系统的试验研究

The experimental study of summer precipitation probability forecast system

沈阳市降水概率预报模式研究

Forecast Model of Precipitation Probability in Shenyang Area

短期集合降水概率预报试验

Experiments of short-range ensemble precipitation probability forecasts

山西省玉米生育前期降水概率与特征分析

Analysis on Rainfall Feature and Its Probablity in Earlier Maize Growth Period in Shanxi Province

降水概率模型在旱涝监测评价中的应用研究

A Study on Application of Precipitation Probability Model in Monitoring and Assessment of Drought and Waterlogging

伊犁降水概率天气预报系统

The Precipitation Probability Forecast System

今天气温68度30%的降水概率

It 's 68 degrees , and there 's a 30 % chance that it 's already raining .

当我们听到预报有70%的降水概率时，就改变去野餐的计划，而去打台球。

When we hear weather forecast of a seventy percent chance of rain , we change our plans from a picnic to a pool game .

在Г分布模式中，我们通过改变三参数中的任意一参数使平均雨量发生变化，从而考察其相应的极端降水概率变化的敏感性，其中尺度参数β改变时，极端降水的概率变化最大。

It shows that their spatial is resemble . assuming that only one of the three parameters change . The scale parameter affects most probability of extreme precipitation .

主要介绍了降水概率预报的事件概率回归方法，1997年试用表明这种方法有一定的参考价值。

In this paper , the precipitation probability event regression analysis is introduced . The method is used in 1997 , the result is useful and valuable in weather forecasting .

集合预报还能提供客观化、定量化的降水概率预报，对降水的发生、尤其是特大降水的发生有着很好的提示作用。

Also objective and quantitative precipitation probability forecast can be obtained from the ensemble forecast . The precipitation probability forecasts have good directions for the happening of large precipitation in the near future .

文中从地表水分平衡的物理机制出发，引进降水概率统计分布理论，推导出一种由降水气候强迫形成的次网格尺度非均匀径流率计算方法。

A calculation method of subgrid scale runoff ratio over the heterogeneous surface is derived using the distribution theory of probability statistics on the basis of physics mechanism of water balance over land surface .

广州短历时降水极值概率分布模型研究

Research on Probability Distribution Models of Short-Period Precipitation Extreme in Guangzhou

降水量概率分布的一种Γ型通用模式

A general gamma probability model for precipitation in various periods

这个方法既考虑了集合成员总体的差异性又考虑了降水的概率分布。

It takes into account both the ensemble otherness of members and probability distributing of precipitation .

1至20天内随着日数增加，最大日降水量概率密度大值区向降水量大的一侧偏移，且分布变平坦，处在不同区间内的概率差异变小。

With adding days big value of Probability distributing deflect to bigger precipitation , and it becomes smoothness , difference between different interzone becomes small .

华东梅汛期分片暴雨前期气象因子场的分析华南地区汛期极端降水的概率分布特征

Analysis of Meteorological Factors of Regional Heavy Rainfall in East China during Meiyu Period ; Probability distribution of precipitation extremes during raining seasons in South China

平均而言，三种方法对各量级以上降水的概率预报都是有技巧预报，对量级小的降水的概率预报技巧高于对量级大的降水的概率预报技巧。

Averagely , the three methods ' probability forecasts are all skillful for all precipitation categories . The skill of probability forecast for small precipitation category is higher than the skill for large precipitation category .

1976年是北半球大气环流和气候年代际变化转折年，据此也研究了1961-1975年和1976-2000年两时段各季日平均气温和夏季日降水量概率分布的年代际差异。

For the year of 1976 is turn of inter-decadal variations of atmosphere circumfluence and climate change , we also analyze inter-decadal variations of probability distributing of average temperature and precipitation in 1961-1975 and 1976-2000 separately .

结果表明：广州全年出现降水的概率为39%，汛期出现降水的概率远大于非汛期，其中6月份出现降水的概率最大，而10～12月份的概率则最小；

The result shows that the probability of precipitation occurrences in Guangzhou is 39 % for a year , and much higher in the rainy season than the other , with maximum in June and minimum in October-December .