贝叶斯法则

当参与农户由于有限理性和信息缺乏，无法通过贝叶斯法则得出后验概率的时候，契约是非均衡路径上形成信念一致性的关键因素。

When farmers due to the limited rationality and lack of information can not be obtained posterior probability through the Bayes rule , the contract is crucial basis of forming consistency faith in the non-equilibrium path .

其次，基于突发事件的不确定性及动态特性，分别利用贝叶斯法则修正先验概率进行动态决策的方法，利用贝叶斯动态修正法则不断地根据阶段结果和所掌握的信息变化调整策略。

Secondly , based on the uncertainty of unexpected events and dynamic features , using Bayes rule to amends to a priori probability for dynamic decision-making methods respectively , using Bayes rule constantly dynamic correction phase of the results according to the information available and the changes in adjusting tactics .

贝叶斯法则说的是，基于置信值动作应该在某种意义上是最优的。

And what Bayes ' rule says is , given my beliefs , the action should in some sense be optimal .

因而投资者并不总是理性的，其行为经常出现非贝叶斯法则预期、风险追求和期望值的多样性。

Therefore , the investors are not always rational , their behavior often embodies the variety of non-Bayesian Rules ' expectation , risk seeking and multifarious prospect .

反应偏差是相对于正常反应而言，正常反应是指人们对事物的预期将依据到来的信息而改变，其改变的原则是依据贝叶斯法则。

That is so-called Under-reaction and Overreaction . Bias relative to the normal reaction , the normal reaction is for people to expect things to change based on the arrival of the information , with the principle of change based on Bayesian rationality .

在试验过程中，贝叶斯停止法则由最优截断时间确定，贝叶斯判决法则由判决风险决定。

For the life data X in a life test , the Bayesian stopping rule and decision rule for the problem of testing fuzzy statistical hypotheses is given in this paper .