超级周期

关于大宗商品的超级周期能否持续的问题，分析师和投资者进行着激烈的辩论。

Debate is intense among analysts and investors over whether the commodity supercycle can be sustained .

由于中国需求的猛增，铜、铁矿石等大宗商品给采矿业带来了巨大财富，而铝却差不多完全错过了这轮“超级周期”。

Yet while commodities such as copper and iron ore have brought riches to the mining industry , thanks to surging Chinese demand , aluminium has almost entirely missed the supercycle .

特别是，IMF是为数不多的押注本次衰退只是大宗商品超级周期中的一个停顿而非终点的官方机构之一。

In particular , it was among the few official institutions to bet that the downturn was a mere pause in the commodities super-cycle , rather than its end .

摩根大通（JPMorgan）大宗商品研究主管科林芬顿（ColinFenton）警告称，在铁矿石价格暴跌之后，矿商纷纷推迟资本支出计划，因此预测大宗商品超级周期结束变得流行起来。

Colin Fenton , head of commodities research at JPMorgan , warned that it had become fashionable to predict the end of the commodities supercycle because of the capex deferrals that followed the collapse in iron ore prices .

哈佛大学（HarvardUniversity）教授肯尼思圠格夫（KennethRogoff）指出，“债务超级周期的第三阶段似乎已经降临”。他说：“任何人如果还在讲对中国来说‘这次不同’的故事，肯定是把他们的头埋在沙子里。”

Noting " the third leg of the debt supercycle does seem to be upon us , " Professor Kenneth Rogoff of Harvard University said : " Anyone who is still telling the ' This Time is Different " story for China has their head in the sand . "

第三，大宗商品超级周期仍在继续，且运行良好。

Third , the commodity super cycle is alive and well .

最新一轮大宗商品超级周期始自2001年，已历时8年。

This latest cycle began in 2001 and is therefore eight years old .

朱地武表示，超级周期的结束期为“三至五年”。

Mr Zhu said it would be over for " three to five years " .

摆在我们面前的一个重大问题是：情况要发展到什么水平，债务超级周期将不得不宣告终结？

The big question : where is that level where the debt supercycle must end ?

中国的工业化和城市化是所谓的“大宗商品超级周期”的主要推动力。

The industrialisation and urbanisation of China is the main driver of the so-called supercycle .

巴西现在也面临着同样的风险：一旦中国需求减弱，大宗商品超级周期就可能结束。

Brazil runs the same risk now : the commodity super-cycle could end once Chinese demand wanes .

大宗商品价格已出现一些反弹；业内共识是，超级周期仍然存在且运转良好。

Prices have recovered somewhat and the consensus in the industry is that the supercycle is alive and well .

去年的价格回落，是大宗商品价格上行过程中典型的超级周期中继。

Last year 's pullback in prices was a typical mid super cycle break in the commodity price upswing .

中国经济放缓破坏了“大宗商品超级周期”，这不利于很多新兴经济体和股市。

The slowdown in China has undermined the commodity supercycle to the detriment of many emerging economies and equity markets .

周五，其价格出现反弹，原因是投资者希望逢低买进。不过，市场对中国驱动的大宗商品超级周期的信心受到了打击。

They rebounded Friday as investors went prospecting for bargains , but belief in a China-driven commodity super-cycle has taken a knock .

垃圾债仅存在于商业周期被拉长的世界中，这与过去二十年的债务超级周期恰好相吻合。

Junk bonds have only existed in a world of extended business cycles , coinciding with the debt supercycle of the past two decades .

随着硬性大宗商品超级周期的结束，软性大宗商品（牛奶、肉类、鱼和谷物）的溢价上升。

With the supercycle in hard commodities over , the premium on softer ones – dairy , meat , fish and grains – has risen .

债务超级周期的概念很简单：有效的经济政策需要赤字支出和刺激性措施来阻止金融危机、恢复经济增长；

The debt supercycle is a simple idea : Sound economic policy requires deficit spending and stimulus efforts to stop financial crises and restore economic growth .

石油（以及铜）的价格轨迹是个例外，但它的实际价格也基本上保持了平稳，并未呈现出超级周期的迹象。

The path of oil ( and copper ) is an exception , but real prices have stayed broadly flat , with no evidence of supercycles .

此外，矿业企业开始将超级周期理论当作大胆并购的依据。

Moreover , mining companies are starting to use the super - cycle theory as a rationale for a more aggressive stance on mergers and acquisitions .

在大宗商品超级周期结束之际，作为终极资源的土地可能会成为下一个热点或是引发跨境纠纷的根源。

With the commodity supercycle ending , land - the ultimate resource - could either become the next big thing or the source of cross-border disputes .

最近的两次大宗商品超级周期，都经历过长达几年的价格回落，然后才进入牛市阶段。事实证明，在这两次周期中，价格回落都是暂时的，上行趋势将会持续。

Both the recent two commodity super cycles experienced major pullbacks several years into their bull runs . Both times the pullbacks proved temporary and the upswing resumed .

在这种清醒的预测的背后，存在着这样一种预感：随着大宗商品超级周期的结束和低油价的到来，拐点已经到来。

Underlying such sober projections is a sense that an inflection point has been reached with the end of the commodity supercycle and the advent of low oil prices .

在上一次大宗商品超级周期（1968年至1980年）期间，大宗商品价格在1974年中到1975年底下跌了25%左右。

During the last commodity super cycle ( 1968 through to 1980 ) commodities fell by approx 25 per cent from mid 1974 through to the end of 1975 .

他们日益主张，本轮大宗商品周期事实上是一个“超级周期”，即多年价格高企，上一次发生在上世纪60年代的日本工业化时期。

They increasingly argue that this commodities cycle is in fact a " super-cycle " a long period of higher prices last seen in the 1960s , when Japan was industrialising .

另一方面，随着中国经济增长的大宗商品强度迅速下降，同超级周期时代相比，每单位较低增长产生的金属和能源需求甚至更低。

Second , the commodity intensity of the economic growth is falling rapidly such that each increment of lower growth generated even less demand for metals and energy than during the supercycle .

在大宗商品超级周期的繁荣期，快速增长的中国进口越来越多的原材料，矿商在项目上投资了上千亿美元。

During the boom years of the commodities supercycle , miners invested hundred of billions of dollars in projects as a rapidly growing China sucked in ever increasing amounts of raw materials .

资金正流出该行业，一些投资者正对所谓的大宗商品超级周期提出质疑。根据超级周期观点，受中国增长的支撑，大宗商品价格将持续上涨。

Money is flowing out of the sector and some investors are questioning the so-called commodities ' supercycle ' – the mantra that prices will rise and rise , underpinned by Chinese growth .

尽管巴西的问题在很大程度上是该国自己酿成的，但它并非受到大宗商品超级周期告终和中国增长放缓影响的唯一大型新兴经济体。

While Brazil 's problems are largely of its own making , it is not the only big emerging economy to suffer from the end of the commodities supercycle and slowing growth in China .

随着大宗商品价格在2008年下半年大幅下挫，投资者正在质疑大宗商品超级周期的概念，以及投资此类资产的理论依据。

With the sharp falls in commodities prices in the second half of 2008 , investors are questioning the concept of the commodity super cycle and the rationale for investing in that asset class .