干散货

台湾海峡两岸主要干散货运输及其战略规划研究

Study on Transportation Strategic Projection of Main Dry Bulk Cargo between Taiwan Strait

第三部分描述了国际干散货航运市场，并在此基础上给出了市场的理论模型。

The dry bulk cargo market is described , and a theoretical model of the market is made in the third part .

波罗的海干散货指数（drybulkindex）最近出现回落，这显示运输船舶排放量监管规则的收紧不可能导致近期出现成本扭曲。

The recent decline in the dry bulk index suggests that tighter emissions regulations on shipping vessel is unlikley to result in near-term cost distortions .

作为衡量大宗商品航运成本的关键指标，波罗的海干散货运价指数（balticdryindex）在过去一年里已上涨了一倍多。

The Baltic Dry Index , a key measure of commodity shipping costs , has more than doubled in the past year .

干散货FFA市场价格发现功能的研究

The Study on Price Discovery Function of Dry Bulk FFA Market

干散货航运市场的FFA定价及运用

Pricing and Application of FFA in Dry Bulk Shipping Market

过去一年，Su一直押注干散货市场会下跌，而油轮费率会上升。

He has bet for the past year that the dry bulk market would fall while rates for oil tankers would rise .

介绍了广泛应用于计算风险的VAR模型，并将该模型用于求解三种干散货船面临的市场风险。

The widely used VAR model was introduced , and then was applied to solve market risk of three kinds of dry bulk carriers .

至于全球贸易，波罗的海干散货运价指数（balticdryindex）较2008年最高水平下跌了三分之二，但仍高于过去10年的普遍水平。

As for world trade , the Baltic Dry Index is two-thirds lower than its 2008 peak but higher than where it has generally traded over the past 10 years .

鉴于干散货运价指数的非线性特征，本文提出了结合混沌时间序列分析的相空间重构和支持向量机（SVM）的混合预测模型，探讨并阐述了混合模型的预测原理及建模思路。

Secondly , this paper discusses the modeling idea and develops a hybrid forecasting model based on Support Vector Machine ( SVM ) and chaotic time series theory .

但是，在波罗的海干散货指数（balticdryindex）平均逾7000点以上达成的合约，在运费大跌后就显得很不明智了。

But contracts struck when the Baltic Dry Index averaged over 7000 points looked a lot less clever after freight rates plunged , and the BDI touched 663 in early December .

远期运费协议（干散货FFA）是目前被广泛应用的一种能有效规避运价波动风险的方式。

Forward freight agreement ( FFA ) is an effective way to avoid freight fluctuation risk has been widely used .

TMT还退还了一些租赁的干散货船，并报废了其他一些旧船。

The company has also handed back some chartered dry bulk vessels to their owners and scrapped others .

但是，近年来，也发生了不少企业参与干散货FFA交易导致的巨额亏损甚至是破产的事例。

However , in recent years , there are some enterprises to participate in the FFA transaction resulted in huge losses and even bankruptcy .

为更好地分析干散货运价变化的内在机制，论文在一定理论假设基础上，依据供需结构建立联立方程（SE）模型，对市场供给变化如何判定，市场供需如何决定运价变化做出了分析。

In order to analyze how the demand and supply of dry bulk market determines the freight rate , I proceed to establish a SE ( simultaneous equation ) based on some theoretical hypothesizes .

本论文分为八个章节来讨论，第一章节为绪论部分。回顾了不确定多属性决策方法、层次分析法（AHP）以及江海直达干散货船（队）研究进展和发展趋势。

The first chapter is an introduction . In this section , the research development and develop trend of uncertain multi-attribute decision making , AHP and sea-river dry bulk carriers ( barges ) are introduced .

尽管如此，Su仍将一些较旧的干散货船报废，而不是延长它们的使用寿命。他相信这是管理船队最有效的途径。

In spite of this , Mr Su has scrapped some older dry bulk vessels , rather than extending their lifespan , believing this is the most efficient route to managing his fleet .

二十一世纪以来在干散货航运市场运费率研究中包含FFA也渐渐成为趋势，论述了这种趋势与主要成果。

It has been a trend to include FFA in the dry bulk shipping model in the new century , and this trend and main productions are stated .

与此同时，反映船运成本的波罗的海干散货指数（balticdryindex）在不到两个月的时间内大跌60%。该指数在2008年出现暴跌，当时被一些人视为全球经济的晴雨表。

At the same time , the Baltic Dry Index of freight costs , regarded by some as a barometer of the global economy when it plunged in 2008 , has fallen 60 per cent in less than two months .

作为一个显然居于次要位置的危机迹象，以衡量干散货货运价格的波罗地海干散货指数（balticdryindex）为例，该指数本月跌幅达50%，较5月份的峰值下跌逾90%。

As an apparently minor sign of distress , take the Baltic Dry Index , which measures bulk shipping rates . It has halved this month , and is down more than 90 per cent from its peak in May .

直到2008年初反应国际干散货海运价格的波罗的海干散货综合运价指数（BDI），从2004年的3000多点一路上涨到接近12000点。

Until the beginning of 2008 , Baltic Dry Index ( BDI ) has risen to nearly 1,2000 points from more than 3000 points in 2004 .

航运相关参与者可以通过把握国际干散货FFA市场与即期市场的相关性及波动性的相关规律，为制定套期保值与市场交易策略提供-定的参考。

Through the relevant laws to grasp the correlation and volatility of bulk FFA market and the spot market , the international dry , help participants to provide certain reference for shipping .

上周五，衡量大宗商品航运成本的“波罗的海干散货运价指数”（bdi）遭遇了其有史以来的最大跌幅，跌至2221点，跌幅为11%。

The Baltic Dry Index , a measure of shipping costs for commodities , suffered its biggest drop on record on Friday , falling 11 per cent to 22211 .

为验证国际干散货航运市场的弱有效性，对波罗的海运价指数（BDI）进行了波动性分析和随机游走检验。

In order to verify the weak efficiency properties of international dry bulk shipping market , volatility of the BDI was analyzed and the random walk hypothesis was tested .

然而干散货航运FFA市场作为一种航运衍生品，一种特殊的金融市场产品，和一般的金融市场产品一样，也具有波动溢出效应。

However dry bulk shipping FFA market as a shipping derivatives , a special kind of financial market products , comparing with general financial market products , also has the fluctuation spillover effect .

全球大宗商品航运成本基准指数波罗的海干散货运价指数（bdi）已跌至4个月前水平的四分之一。

The Baltic Dry Index ( BDI ) , the global benchmark for the cost of shipping commodities , has slumped to a quarter of its level four months ago .

通过方差比检验法对国际干散货航运市场的收益率序列进行了检验，结果显示BDI的对数序列的随机游走假设被拒绝，国际干散货航运市场不是一个有效的市场。

Through variance ratio test , the result shows , that the random walk hypothesis of BDI logarithm series can be rejected and international dry bulk shipping market is inefficient .

本文的研究成果为国内企业参与FFA市场的应用提供了理论支持和决策依据，对干散货航运企业的风险管理具有一定的参考价值。

In this paper , the results of research provide a theoretical basis for domestic enterprises to participate in forward freight market and have a certain reference value in risk management in shipping-related industries .

看看世界最大的干散货船舶运营商中国远洋运输集团（Cosco）吧。该公司的航海业根基如此深厚，以至于它把首席执行官首先称为船长。

Consider China 's Cosco , the world 's largest operator of dry bulk ships , and a company so steeped in seafaring lore that it identifies its chief executive first as captain .

在上月香港市场首日交易中，重型卡车制造商中国重汽（sinotruk）和干散货运输企业中外运航运（sinotransshipping）的跌幅都超过了13%。

Shares in SINOTRUK , a heavy-truck maker , and Sinotrans shipping , a dry bulk carrier , last month each fell by more than 13 per cent on first-day dealings in Hong Kong .