危机预测

通过多年的研究，很多学者已在大量的财务比率中筛选出了一些相对有效的财务比率预测指标，而绝大多数的财务危机预测模型正是基于这些财务比率而建立的。

Through years of research , many scholars have a large number of financial ratios have been screened out a number of relatively effective predictor of financial ratios , while the vast majority of the financial crisis forecasting model based on these financial ratios is established .

基于因子分析和Logistic回归模型的我国集团上市公司财务危机预测实证研究

Empirical study on forecasting financial distress of listed enterprise groups based on factorial analysis and Logistic regression model

基于P-S方法的金融危机预测系统构建与应用

Building and Application of the Currency Crisis Warning System Based on Possibility-Satisfiability ( P-S ) Method

基于案例推理的财务危机预测模型研究

Studies on the Prediction Model of Financial Crisis Based on Case-based Reasoning

第四章：大学生自杀危机预测和干预。

Forecast and the intervention on the university student commits suicide crisis .

财务危机预测是金融领域一个重要的研究课题。

Financial distress Prediction is an important field in Finance .

企业危机预测与识别模型

Study on Forecasting and Recognition Model of Enterprise Crisis

基于网络的上市公司财务危机预测模型

Listed Companies Finance Distress Prediction Model based on Network

上市公司财务危机预测模型比较研究

A Comparative Study on the Model of Financial Crisis Prediction for Listed Companies

企业财务危机预测模型研究综述

A Survey of Enterprise Financial Crisis Prediction Model

上市公司财务危机预测&多类别变量实证研究

Prediction of Financing Risk in Stock Company & Study of Multi Variables Practical Examples

论文的研究意义企业财务危机预测有着广泛的市场需求。

The idea of research is from the forecast for finance crisis of enterprise .

第二部分介绍了传统财务危机预测模型并对其进行了评析；

And the second part reviews and analyses traditional models on financial crisis prediction ;

有效的企业财务危机预测，可改善企业经营管理。

The effective prediction of enterprise financial crisis could improve enterprise operation and management .

然后构建现金流量财务危机预测模型。

And then establish the financial early-warning model of the cash flow of the structure .

本文把股权结构指标纳入到了财务危机预测体系中。

This paper puts the share structure index into the prediction system of the financial crisis .

公司的财务危机预测模型中考虑公司治理因素开始成为完善公司信用风险评价理论的重要方面。

Erecting a model including rations of corporate governance is important to improve credit risk management .

通过食品安全的危机预测预报，及时采取有效的干预措施，积极预防危机、化解或减轻危机。

Lastly , effective intervention measures must strengthened to prevent , eliminate or ease a food safety crisis .

接下来对现金流量财务危机预测实证研究进行理性分析，探讨了实证样本的选择方法和现金流量财务预测指标筛选途径。

Next to analyze to cash flow financial early-warning reason of positive research , choice method and financial early-warning index of cash flow to probe into real example sample screen the route .

实证分析结果表明：其一，我国上市公司财务比率不服从正态分布，因而不适宜使用多元线性判别分析方法建立财务危机预测模型；

The results are as the following : firstly , financial ratios aren 't identical to the normal distribution , so it 's not suitable to conduct the early-warning model by Linear Multiple Discrimant Analysis .

企业资产证券化特有的风险隔离机制和信用增级技术，保证了企业融资与企业整体信用风险相分离，降低了企业融资风险。上市公司财务危机预测&多类别变量实证研究

Thirdly , the unique techniques , such as asset packaging , true sale , bankruptcy-remote , credit enhancement , reduces the financing risk . Prediction of Financing Risk in Stock Company & Study of Multi Variables Practical Examples

本文将粗糙集理论和信息熵概念引入财务危机预测领域，建立一种基于粗糙集理论的企业财务危机预测模型，试图一定程度避免相关问题的产生。

This paper introduces the idea of rough sets theory and information entropy to build up a model , which can be used to predict the financial risk of an enterprise , in case some correlated affairs occur in some degree .

企业财务危机预测是非线性预测，各个影响因素之间又存在着复杂的组合决策关系，并且现实中的数据多为连续的，很难直接用于机器分类学习。

Enterprise 's financial crisis predicts is the non-linear prediction , there is a complicated association decision relation between each influence factor , and the data in reality are continuous , it is very difficult to be used in the categorized machine to study directly .

对现金流量财务危机预测实证方法的运用，本文采取了单变量和多变量的分析方法，其中多变量分析采用多元线性判定的方法和多元逻辑回归方法。

To cash flow financial early-warning real example application of method , paper adopt single variable analyze and changeable quantity analyze method , changeable quantity analyze , adopt Multiple Discriminant Analysis ( MDA ) method return to ( Logistic ) method with plural logic among them .

本文对只含传统财务指标的预警模型（模型一）与引入现金流量指标和非财务指标的预警模型（模型二）两者的预测效果进行了比较，发现模型二具有更高的危机预测能力。

The author compared only the traditional financial indicators with the early warning model ( model 1 ) with the introduction of cash flow targets and non-financial indicators for early warning model ( model 2 ) , and found that model 2 has a stronger predictive power .

MMPI测试对住院精神病患者危机状态预测分析及心理干预

Predictive analysis of the crisis state of hospitalized psychiatric patients by MMPI test and psychological intervention

因此可以得出结论：在中国制造业上市公司中，利用BP神经元网络技术建立财务预警模型对未来可能到来的危机进行预测，更为准确和有效。

Therefore it can be concluded : Chinese manufacturing listed companies to establish financial early warning model based on BP neural network technology to predict the possible arrival of the crisis onthe future , more accurate and effective .

运用Logistic回归分析，进行模型预测企业出现财务危机的预测准确率达到79.0%，判错率为21.0%。其次，对模型进行改进。

With the logistic regression , the right percentage of forecast is 79.0 % , and the false rate is 21.0 % . Secondly , to improving the accuracy of the model , cluster analysis and factor analysis are put into use .

对于企业财务危机的预测在国外早有研究而且相当成熟，但是在国内对此的研究还不是很成熟。

But in our country the study is not very mature .

通过观察这些敏感性财务指标的优劣变化，特别是现金流指标便可以对企业的财务危机进行预测。

The financial crisis of company can be forecasted by analyzing the changes of financial index , especially cash flow index .