预测区间

R.V.期望的区间估计与R.V.的预测区间

Interval Estimate of Variable Expectation and Prediction Interval of Variable

序限制下同变预测区间的改进

Improvement on equivariant prediction interval under order restriction

在截至今年6月的3个月里，苹果卖出了4030万部iPhone，比上年同期下滑15%，但这一销量处于分析师预测区间的较高一端。

Apple sold 40.3m iPhones in the three months to June , down 15 per cent on the prior year but at the higher end of analysts " forecasts .

基于极大似然估计，Engelhardt＆Bain（1978）导出了Weibull过程将来第k次失效时间的经典预测区间。

Classical prediction intervals , based upon maximum likelihood estimation , for the k - th future failure time of a Weibull process were derived by Engel-hardt & Bain ( 1978 ) .

今年第一季度，iPhone销量同比下滑16%。第二季度的业绩显示iPhone的销售情况略有好转，销量同比下滑15%，但处于分析师预测区间的较高一端。

After iPhone sales fell 16 per cent in the quarter to March , Apple 's third-quarter results showed only a moderate improvement , with sales down 15 per cent albeit at the higher end of analysts " expectations .

再次，在第三部分进行ARIMA模型的评价标准上，运用了从不同基区间，不同预测区间的预测有效性评价标准，然后从不同角度选择时序模型，这点在国内研究中也比较少见。

When we conclude the ARIMA model evaluation criteria , We use evaluation of the effectiveness of prediction criteria by the different base interval and different prediction interval , then we select the timing model from different points of view , this is relatively rare in the domestic research .

时间序列多期累积量的预测区间及应用

Predicted Interval of Multi period Accumulators in Time Series and Applications

华尔街对该产品第一年销量的预测区间从100万台直至1000万台。

Wall Street forecasts for first-year sales ranged from anything between 1m and 10m units .

在较长预测区间内，持续预测变量例如企业经营活动产生的现金流更加重要。

At long prediction horizon , continuous predictor variable such as cash flow from operation becomes more important .

在双参数指数分布场合下，基于Ⅱ型双删失数据，分别得到了单样本和双样本情况下的贝叶斯预测区间。

The two-parameter exponential distribution is proposed to be the underlying model , and prediction bounds for future observations are obtained using Bayesian approach .

三是建立整体现金流量预测区间，使企业更好地做出财务决策。

The third one is to set up the forecast interval of total cash flow , which could let the company make better financial decision .

为此，设计了一个模拟试验，获得了预测区间长度与调度结果之间的关系，对改进调度系统中预测算法提出了一些建议。

This paper designs a simulation test and gets the relationship of the interval of prediction and the balance of the system , and gives some advices to improve the schedule algorithm of distributed system .

同时田间新梢蚜虫发生率与黄板上蚜虫诱集量有显著的线性关系，可以利用黄板上蚜虫诱集量平均值的预测区间结合田间无翅蚜发生高峰来预测田间蚜虫的发生情况。

A significant linear relationship was found between the trapped aphid number and aphid incidence in current shoots . Thus , prediction confidence intervals of aphids on traps combining with the occurrence peak of apterous aphids in fields were suggested to estimate aphid occurence .

因此可由变频器的频率对其效率进行点预测或区间预测。

Therefore , point and interval prediction for system efficiency can be realized through frequency of frequency converter .

与传统方法相比，粗集预报模型不依赖于具体的数学模型，所得到的预报值是一定可信度下的区间值，并且预测值区间与实测值区间基本一致。

Compared with the conventional method , the present model is independent on a special mathematical model , and the predicted results are intervals under certain reliability , which are in accordance with measured data .

对入库洪水过程预测模型、区间洪水过程预测模型的理论和应用进行了深入研究。

This paper studies the theory of model of flood forecast .

基于ν-支持向量机的边际电价预测及置信区间估计

System marginal price prediction and confidence interval estimation with ν - support vector machine

这就意味着这些变量仅当未来的预测值超出区间时才被看作被控变量。

This means that these outputs will be treated as controlled variables only when the predicted future values lie outside the boundary of the specified zone .

该算法利用前向线性预测技术以及区间正交小波变换抑制边界效应的能力，有效地减小了角随机游走和发动机干扰。

The algorithm uses forward linear prediction and the ability of the interval wavelet transform to restrain terrible edge effects , thus , the angle walk and engine jamming are reduced effectively .

建议在对模拟与预测误差的区间、敏感性有不同要求时，选择不同层数的网络解决实际问题。

It was suggest that the layers number of neural networks should be determined when there are different requirement on the sensitivity and error control of both the simulation and prediction results .

在时间序列的分析与预测中，区间预测模型由于其相比于普通的单值预测模型能够更好地体现数据变化的动态特性而愈来愈受到重视。

In the field of time series analysis and prediction , prediction interval model is getting more and more attention because it can better reflect the dynamic characteristics of the changes in the data compared to the ordinary single-valued prediction model .

通过生物信息学软件预测，这段区间包括6个叶绿体蛋白基因。

Homologous analysis indicated that this region contained six chloroplast protein genes .

基于模糊时间序列预测的二目标区间数折衷规划

Binary-Objective Interval Number Compromise Programming Based on Forecasting of the Fuzzy Time-Series

序限制下最优位置同变预测量和预测区间的改进

Improvement on the Best Location Equivariant Prediction Predictors or Prediction Interval under the Ordered Parameters

本文给出了预测可信度、可信区间、可信域等基本概念；

In this paper , some new conceptions , such as Forecasting Creditable Grade ( or Acceptable Grade of forecasting results ) . Creditable Interval and Creditable Domain , are defined .

引入ν-支持向量机，通过构造和求解一个凸优化问题，同时实现了对边际电价的预测和对置信区间的估计，且无需假定预测偏差的概率分布。

ν - support vector machine is employed to achieve system marginal price prediction and confidence interval estimation simultaneously by constructing and solving a convex optimization problem . Hypothesis for prediction-error distribution is unnecessary in this method .

本文的主要工作如下：（1）将区间模糊集的规范化欧几里德距离引入组合预测，建立以预测区间序列与实际序列规范化欧氏距离最小为准则的区间组合预测模型。

The main results are as follows . ( 1 ) The Euclidean distance of the interval valued fuzzy sets are introduced during chapter three . A new model is established with the criterion of minimizing the Euclidean distance between the forecast value and the actual value .

其次，根据得到的半参模型进行价格预测，并上下浮动一定范围，得到预测区间。

Next , we make pricing forecasting based on semi parametric model which is obtained . Then we float up and down in a certain range to obtain the forecast interval .

根据局部预测方差与分位数估计，结合确定性预测结果构造预测区间，得到概率性预测结果。

According to the estimation of the percentiles and local predictive variance , along with the combination of the deterministic load forecasting result , the forecasting interval is constructed and the probabilistic load forecasting results can be obtained .

通过实验仿真表明，该方法可以有效分析功率预测结果的不确定性，给出一定置信度下的预测功率置信区间。

Through simulation , results show that this method can effectively analyze the uncertainty of power prediction results . The confidence interval of the given power prediction value can be obtained under certain confidence level .