神头泉

以1985年为界，神头泉的流量变化过程可分为两个阶段，GM（1,1）模型与灰色预测校正模型则分别用于对这两个阶段的流量变化特征进行刻画。

The change can be divided into two phases : the GM ( 1,1 ) model in 1985 used to fit the discharge change process before 1985 , and grey prediction amending model to simulate the process after 1985 and to predict the trend of the change .

山西神头泉流量的灰色预测模型研究

Gray prediction model for forecasting spring discharge

运用季节分解的方法分析了我国北方著名岩溶大泉&神头泉流量与大气降雨变化的关系。

In this paper , the relation between the discharge of Shentouquan artesian province and rainfall change is studied with the seasonal decomposition method .

在分析神头泉流量衰减特征的前提下，利用灰色系统理论建立了描述神头泉流量变化规律的数学模型。

Grey system theory is applied to simulate and predict the discharge change of the Shentou springs with time based on the analysis of attenuation characters of the discharge .

结果表明，大气降雨变化是影响神头泉流量变化的根本原因，其间存在着11年的滞后时期；

The results show that the rainfall change is the main cause of affecting the discharge of the artesian province , there exists a lag time of 11 years between them ;

受大气降雨变化的影响，神头泉流量在未来11年中将不断回升，2007年后流量将稳定在7.66m3/s。

However , the study results show that the discharge of the artesian province should rise incessantly in 11 future years and it will keep 7.66 m 3 / s steadily after 2007 .