信用违约风险

本研究作为该领域的探索性研究之一，尝试将新兴交叉学科的研究方法引入其中，为古老的国家主权信用违约风险问题提供新的研究思路。

This study as one of the exploratory researches in the field , tries emerging interdisciplinary methods into the research in order to provide some new research ideas for the old sovereign credit default risk issues .

本研究的目标是：探索解决新型金融危机全球化带来的国家主权信用违约风险识别与防范问题，为全球范围内的贸易与投资，提供国家主权信用违约风险研判与规避的科学方法。

The objective of this study is to explore solutions to the problems of identifying and preventing the sovereign credit default risk brought about by the new globalized financial crisis , and to provide scientific methods to assess and prevent sovereign risk for trade and investment worldwide .

从因果效应与信息效应两方面对违约传染机制进行了解释，并描述了信用违约风险传染所带来的及时的市场效应和延时的市场影响。

From the two aspects of Causal effect and information effect , we give explanation to the mechanism of default contagion , and describe the timely marketing effect and delayed marketing impact .

接着本文对信用违约互换的风险进行了分析。

Then the risks of credit default swaps are analyzed .

风险从原始、单一的状态层层累积，从单纯的价格变化引发的市场风险通过风险转移，积累了信用风险和违约风险，直至最后整体系统风险的爆发。

Risk from the original , single-state layers of accumulation , from a simple change in price caused by market risk through risk transfer , accumulated credit risk and default risk , until the outbreak of the final overall system risk .

在接下来的10年间，金融产品部门继续扩张，包括进入信用违约互换（CDS）等领域，以及开创抵押贷款和消费者金融业务。信用违约互换为违约风险提供保险。

Over the next decade the financial products division continued to expand , including into areas such as credit default swaps , which insure against the risk of default , as well as originating mortgages and consumer finance .