超越概率

地震烈度发生概率和地震烈度超越概率都是衡量场地地震危险性的重要指标。

Occurrence probability of intensity and exceeding probability of intensity are all important indicators of seismic hazard for a given site .

本次工作通过地震危险性分析得到50年10%超越概率时地震计算烈度为6.0度。

The research results indicate that the earthquake degree is 6 , considering the exceeding probability to be 10 percent in the future 50 years .

在此基础上提出两阶段土地利用适宜性评价方法、以50a超越概率为基础的强震地面断裂适宜性评价分级和相应的工程建设适宜性。

The results give a two-stage analytical assessment method for land use , suitable SGSR levels based on 50 year probabilities , and suggestions for engineering construction methods .

为工程使用方便，文中建议对不同超越概率水准的入射波得到的αL值取平均，并分等级给出简单适用的二维修正系数αL。

For convenience , it is recommended that a suitable two-dimensional modified factor aL can be obtained by averaging the two-dimensional modified factors for the incident waves under the levels of different exceedance probabilities .

利用求得的震级上限值及空间扩散参数，求出场点的具有某种超越概率的烈度值（Pmax）或最大概率最大烈度值（Imax）。

By means of the value of upper limit of magnitude of earthquakes and the spacial diffusion parameters that have been solved , the intensity value ( Pmax ) with some transcendental probability or the muximum intensity value with maximum probability ( Imax ) can be obtained .

对场地的地震动效应进行了研究，给出了50a及100a超越概率水平为63%、10%和3%的场地地震动参数。

According to the in situ testing and laboratory testing of soil layer dynamic parameters of a typical soft soil site , the site effect and design ground motion parameters of the site for excellence probabilities 63 , 10 and 3 percent in 50 and 100 years were studied .

粗略地说，在7度及7度以上地区，且主要影响潜源距场地有一定距离，对50年超越概率10%和3%的结果，M0取4级大体中满足要求；

Roughly speaking , for regions of basic intensities 7 or above 7 , and main potential source is at a distance from the site , M 0 takes 4.0 can meet the cases for results of the probabilities of exceedance 10 % and 3 % in 50 years .

并提出以超越概率曲线的方法来表达火灾危险性分析的结果。

Correlations of Taste Substances The analysis result is depicted by exceedance probability curves .

根据相关资料合成了100年超越概率为10%和3%的各三条人工地震波。

Three man-made earthquake waves are composed with the exceedance probability of 10 % and 3 % .

因此，在工程活动断层未来潜在地表位移量的评价中也应采用与工程安全级别相应的超越概率表述方式。

So we should adopt the similar method in evaluation of potential surface displacement of active fault segments .

基于随机振动分析的可靠度计算为求解叶轮应力的超越概率以及疲劳分析等打下了基础。

The computation of reliability index lays a foundation for solving the exceedance probability of stress and fatigue analysis of impellers .

离散化之后，得到年超越概率的综合表达式及其相应的解析近似。

After their discretion , it is possible to obtain the expression and analytical approximation for the annual probability of exceedance .

建议取50年超越概率10%的地震烈度，即地震烈度Ⅶ度作为抗震设防标准。

The seismic intensity over the next 50 years with a probability of exceedance of 10 % in the area , i. e.

按照等超越概率原则确定不同后续服役期内小震、中震和大震的重现期。

The recurrence periods of minor , moderate and major earthquake in different re-service periods are calculated based on equal exceeding principle .

应根据不同设计使用年限活荷载的超越概率等于常规设计荷载超越概率的原则确定活荷的载标准；

The live load should be determined that the exceedance probabilities of live load for different design working life equal to that for conventional design loads .

提出评估基准期的概念，推导出烈度的超越概率与重现期、年平均发生率三者间的关系。

The concept of assessment reference period is put forward . The relation among exceeding probability , recurrence period and annual mean incidence of intensity is deduced .

结果发现区划图上所提供的基本烈度大致相应于50年内超越概率为0.14的烈度水平。

It is discovered that the Basic Intensity offered by the Zoning Map is roughly equivalent to an average intensity level with exceeding probability of 0.14 in 50 years .

基于信息扩散的结果，计算了以年为周期的重大火灾发生次数的超越概率分布，建立了一种重大火灾频度估算方法。

Based on information diffusion , a method of great fire risk prediction is raised up ; exceeding probability of the number of great fire annual in Japan was calculated .

论文通过地震危险性分析建立起超越概率63%、10%和3%的地震荷载的地震动参数和加速度时程。利用循环荷载试验得出特殊地基土的动剪切模量、阻尼比与剪应变的关系；

Seismic parameters and time-distance curves of ground motion under 63 % , 10 % and 3 % probability of exceedance are set up by analysis of site seismic risk .

对于高速公路大桥的抗震设防，应给出80年代设计基准期63%、10%和2%三个超越概率水准的设计地震动参数；

To the aseismic fortification of bridge of high way , three designing ground motion parameters with surpassing probabilities of 63 % , 10 % and 2 % for 80 years should be given .

在不同形状超越概率曲线的基础上耦合了结构倒塌能力的不确定性，提出了一般建设工程抗倒塌风险的控制方法。

Coupling the probability distribution for the collapse capacity with a corresponding ground motion hazard curve for the location of the structure , we proposed method of controlling collapse risk for general construction projects .

第四章是论文的工作重点，详细介绍了结构动力可靠性分析的基本方法，包括超越概率、失效模型和失效准则等；

Chapter 4 is the main part of the thesis , in which the essential methods of structural dynamic reliability are put forward in details , including passage probability , failure model , failure criteria , etc.

同时评价结果表明，场地50年超越概率10%的烈度值为该场址的基本地震烈度，建筑场地稳定性以及适应性较好、无不良地质现象。

The evaluation presents that the workaround intensity of 10 % super probability within 50 years is its basic earthquake intensity . The stability and adaptability of this building is good , without any bad geology phenomenon .

考虑了土层、建筑物荷载分配、地震动波形等影响因素对不均匀震陷的协同作用效果，依据不同超越概率下的地震动给出了建筑物不均匀震陷时程曲线。

The combined effect of the soil , structure and seismic wave was considered in the analysis and the time-dependant curves of earthquake-induced differential settlement of the building were obtained according to differential probability of seismic ground motion .

本文研究了时变结构的动力响应，及其首次超越概率，时变极值分布等问题。提出了基于时变极值分布的时变动力可靠度计算公式。

The dynamic response , the first passage probability , and the time dependent extreme value distribution are analysed , the formula of time dependent reliability based on time dependent extreme value distribution is given also in this paper .

由于自然灾害系统的复杂性及数据资料的不完备性，人们不可能精确估计任何自然灾害发生的概率，“概率值估不准”是现有超越概率风险区划图的致命弱点。

Due to the complexity of natural disaster systems and the incompleteness of data , it is impossible to accurately estimate the probability of any natural disaster occurring . " Imprecision of probability estimation " is the fatal disadvantage of current risk maps based on the exceedance-probability .

如果把地震动作为随机过程，峰值加速度本身具有随机性，它的出现对应于一定的超越概率，而且峰值加速度并不能反映整个地震过程的破坏作用。

If ground motion is treated as a random process , PGA is not a determinist value and involves randomness , and then its appearance is associated a certainty probability . So PGA does not reflect the destructive effect of the whole earthquake ground motion time history .

分别采用4倍洞径、6倍洞径、8倍洞径的横向范围和超越概率为5%、10%、63%的地震波进行模拟，确定了数值模拟中合理的横向范围和地震波。

In order to make certain of the reasonable transverse calculation range and the earthquake intensity , the transverse calculation range of four , six and eight times of the diameter and the seismic wave exceed probability of five , ten and sixty-three percent have been simulated .

本项预测采用概率方法，首先根据55座土坝和59个重点堤围的座标进行概率地震危险性分析，给出它们在一定预测年限T（取50年和100年）的地震烈度I的超越概率；

In the prediction , the probabilistic approach is used , i. e. probabilistic seismic hazard analysis is first performed based on the coordinates of 55 dams and 59 key embankment points , giving the exceedance probability of intensity I of these structures for a given period T ;

建筑物的震害预测结果体现了未来地震来临时的震害程度，在编制漳州市区抗震防灾规划时，对于遭遇50年超越概率10%的地震影响发生中等以上破坏的建筑物应考虑进行抗震鉴定和加固；

The results of earthquake damage predicting of buildings embody the damage when earthquake happens in the future . Thus , further identifications and reinforcements should be considered to buildings that will be destroyed intermediately or more under the earthquake with 10 % exceeding probability in future 50 years ;