财政乘数

如果像美国总统巴拉克奥巴马（BarackObama）的经济顾问委员会（councilofeconomicadvisers）所估计的，财政乘数为1.6，那么政府项目的成本就为零，私人部门的规模也会扩大。

If the fiscal multiplier is 1.6 , as President Barack Obama 's Council of Economic Advisers has estimated , we get a free government project and a larger private sector .

经济学家道恩霍兰德（DawnHolland）和乔纳森波特斯（JonathanPortes）指出了财政乘数目前处于不寻常高位的另一个原因：所有人在同时推行紧缩。

The economists Dawn Holland and Jonathan Portes have pointed out one other reason why the fiscal multiplier is unusually high at the moment : everyone is pursuing austerity at the same time .

这是因为在这种情况下财政乘数特别高，国际货币基金组织（imf）就指出了这一点。

This is because fiscal multipliers are particularly high in such circumstances , as the International Monetary Fund has argued .

国际货币基金组织（IMF）去年就财政乘数展开了一场辩论，奥利维尔布兰查德（OlivierBlanchard）和丹尼尔利（DanielLeigh）最近一篇解释危机期间经济预测为何总是出错的文章，将这场辩论推向了高潮。

The International Monetary Fund started a debate on the multiplier last year , culminating in a recent paper by Olivier Blanchard and Daniel Leigh , explaining why economic forecasts have been so persistently wrong during the crisis .

考虑一下衡量政府刺激效果的指标&财政乘数。

Consider the fiscal multiplier , a measure of the effects of government stimulus .

财政乘数无疑很有趣。

Fiscal multipliers are certainly fun .

比如说，报告称：与正常衰退相比，在一场资产负债表衰退中，财政乘数可能较小。

It remarks , for example , that fiscal multipliers in a balance sheet recession may be lower than in normal recessions .

我本来预期财政乘数效应会随着经济回归正常而降低，但目前还未出现这种情况，可能暂时也不会出现。

I would expect the multiplier to become smaller as the economy returns to normal , but that has not happened yet , and will probably not happen for a while .

很难说今年的财政乘数效应到底有多高，目前各国的乘数效应可能有所不同，但肯定会高于危机前。

Just how large the multiplier will be this year is difficult to say exactly and may vary across countries , but it is certainly higher now than before the crisis .

如果你对财政乘数的规模、全球经济以及结构改革对增长的影响做出乐观得不切实际的假设，你可以让所有债务在账面上消失。

If you make unrealistically optimistic assumptions about the size of the fiscal multiplier , the global economy and the impact of structural reform on growth , you can make any debt disappear on paper .

其次，官方政策一直、也将继续是：如果各国没有实现名义赤字目标（而它们也确实没有实现，因为它们一直低估财政乘数），就必须一个接一个地实行紧缩计划。

Second , it has been , and continues to be , official policy that countries must heap one austerity programme on top of another if they miss nominal deficit targets – which they do because they keep underestimating the fiscal multiplier .

解释利率与消费及通胀预期相互作用的模型相对缜密，但财政乘数高深莫测，以致于专家们无法就它何时是正面的（推动增长）、何时是负面的（减缓产出）达成共识。

There are relatively rigorous models that explain the interaction of interest rates with consumption and inflation expectations but the fiscal multiplier is so enigmatic that experts cannot agree when it is positive ( pushes up growth ) or negative ( slows down output ) .

由一个简单的IS-LM模型可以推导出财政政策乘数公式。

From the simple IS-LM Model , We can get a multiplier formula of financial policies .

通过对中国的实际经济数据进行计量分析，可认识中国的消费、投资等行为，并进而探讨中国的IS-LM模型，为测算中国的财政政策乘数提供基础。

Through an econometric analysis of real economic data , this paper advances our understanding of consumption and investment behavior in China and then examines its IS-LM model , providing a foundation for measuring its fiscal policy multiplier .

结论是：IS-LM-BP模型的分析方法在我国目前是适用的；我国财政政策乘数大于货币政策乘数。

The conclusion is that , as a method of analysis , the IS-LM-BP Model is suit to China , the multiple of fiscal policy is larger than that of monetary policy ;

首先在ISLM模型中，重新推导了财政支出乘数，指出由于利率的影响，挤出效应减弱了乘数效应。外国直接投资对我国国内投资挤出效应研究

In the model of ISLM , we redraw the fiscal multiplier function , denoting that crowd-out effect anti-acts the multiplier effect , due to the rate of interest . A Study on FDI 's Crowd - out Effect on China 's Domestic Investment

第四部分研究财政支出乘数。

Chapter four is about fiscal expenditure multiplier .

该模型给出了财政政策乘数、投资需求拉动乘数、消费需求拉动乘数以及财政支出回馈乘数等评价政策效果的重要参数。

At last , the model in this article confirms the important parameters , such as the financial policy multiplier , and so on .

他们都没有为自己的选择找到充分的理论依据，这是由于投资乘数理论及其扩展形式&财政政策乘数理论模型在分析经济问题时有其局限性。

Neither of them could provide reasonable basis for their views . This is due to the limitations of investment multiplier model and its extended pattern ? the fiscal policy multiplier model .

国际货币基金组织举出的证据显示，财政负乘数效应自金融危机爆发以来确实一直超出预期，这恰好与利率降至零点附近以及经济陷入流动性陷阱发生在同一时间。

The IMF has produced evidence that negative fiscal multipliers have indeed been larger than expected since the start of the financial crisis , which has coincided with interest rates falling close to zero and economies stuck in liquidity traps .

中国财政政策理论乘数和实际乘数效应研究

A Study on Theoretical Multiplier of the Fiscal Policy in China and Its Actual Multiplier Effects

最新迹象表明，在经济低迷时期，财政紧缩的乘数效应会加深经济衰退，进而更难以削减财政赤字。

The latest evidence is that in a downturn the multiplier effect of fiscal tightening can lead to deeper recession , making it even harder to cut the deficit .

基于凯恩斯关于国民收入决定理论，通过对1985年至2002年的数据进行分析，估算出我国IS&LM经济模型、投资函数、消费函数、利率函数，计算出我国短期和长期财政政策的乘数。

According to keynes'theoretics about national income deciding , estimates the IS & LM economy model , the investment function , consume function and interest rae function of my country and figures out long multipliers and short multipliers .

取消农业税政策手段的执行，通过财政政策的传导机制和财政政策乘数效应，使社会总需求或总供给发生变化，与政府的政策所期望实现的目标相一致。

The execution of the policy means of cancel the agricultural tax , pass the conduction mechanism of the financial policy and financial policy multiplier effect , make the total social demand or supply change , compatible with the goal that the policy of the government expects to be realized .

积极财政政策确实会产生挤出效应，也就是，扩张财政政策通过乘数效应带来经济增长的同时，也会因利率的增加，对民营企业投资产生抑制效应。

That is , expansionary fiscal policy leads to economic growth through the multiplier , but it would also increase interest rates , which might inhibit the investment of private enterprises .

第五章：西部生态重建财政政策效应分析。通过案例分析，前后对比，描述财政政策的乘数效应、奖抑效应、社会效应和生态效应。

Chapter 5 describes the Multiplier Effect 、 Encouragement and Discouragement Effect 、 Society Effect of fiscal policy with the help of case and comparison .