谢国忠

按照中国经济学家谢国忠（AndyXie）的说法，中国固定资产投资已经占到GDP的65%。

According to the Chinese economist Andy Xie , fixed asset investment has reached 65 per cent of GDP .

前摩根士丹利（MorganStanley）首席亚洲经济学家、现居上海的谢国忠（AndyXie）表示：中国房地产市场是一个巨大的泡沫。

China 's property market is a massive bubble , says Andy Xie , former Morgan Stanley chief Asian economist , based in Shanghai .

摩根士丹利（MorganStanley）前亚洲首席经济学家谢国忠（AndyXie）就是较为看空的人士之一。他认为，全球经济增长已步入经济减速的延伸期。

One of the more bearish voices is Andy Xie , former Morgan Stanley chief Asia economist , who believes that the global economy has begun a protracted deceleration .

许多商品和服务的消费者价格都在以两位数的速度上涨，独立策略师、摩根士丹利（MorganStanley）前亚洲经济学家谢国忠（AndyXie）表示。

Consumer prices are rising at double-digit rates in so many products and services , says Andy Xie , an independent strategist and former Morgan Stanley economist for Asia .

曾供职摩根士丹利（MorganStanley）的独立经济学家谢国忠（AndyXie）认为，奥运相关措施导致的一些增长放慢对中国经济的总体影响并不大。

Andy Xie , an independent economist formerly with Morgan Stanley , estimates the effect of the Olympic slowdown on China 's overall economy is likely to be small .

同年，波士顿的投资公司GMO的爱德华•钱思乐和独立经济学家谢国忠也开始预言中国经济将出现硬着陆。

Edward Chancellor at GMO in Boston and independent economist Andy Xie also began predicting that year that China would soon stumble .

谢国忠同样低估了中国居民的收入，如果你对这点持有疑问，可以看看去苹果Apple，星巴克Starbuck，耐克Nike咄咄逼人的扩展计划以及他们在中国市场获得的巨大利润。

If you don 't trust me about that , ask Apple , Starbucks and Nike why they have aggressive growth plans for China and already make huge profits there .

上海经济学家谢国忠（andyxie）辩称，投机的根源在于实际利率为负，这迫使储户寻求其它方式投资。

Andy Xie , a Shanghai-based economist , argues that the root cause of speculation is negative real interest rates , which forces savers to look for different ways to invest their money .

谢国忠表示，2009年香港IPO市场的繁荣，在很大程度上是受到大量外来资金的推动。当时，全球投资者利用低利率和美元下跌的机会，加大了对中国市场的投资。

Mr Xie says the boom in Hong Kong IPOs in 2009 was largely driven by huge inflows of money , as global investors boosted their exposure to China , taking advantage of low interest rates and the falling US dollar .

相比之下，其他权威分析人士，包括驻上海的独立经济学家谢国忠（andyxie）则表示，香港股市未来数月有可能大幅下挫，因为它们容易受到去年充斥市场的外资突然流出的影响。

By contrast , other respected analysts , including Andy Xie , an independent economist based in Shanghai , say Hong Kong stocks are likely to fall sharply in coming months as they are vulnerable to a sudden outflow of the foreign funds that flooded the market last year .

反击“泡沫论”罗奇和谢国忠的错误预测有功吗？

" bubble theory " erroneous projections meritorious Roche and Xieguozhong ?

谢国忠：房价下降目标每平米为家庭年收入10%。

Xieguozhong : price per square metre drop goal for10 % of household income .

但谢国忠的论调到底有多少可信度？

But how credible are Xie 's arguments ?

谢国忠在邮件中写道：“人们把他捧得像个王子似的。”

Mr Xie wrote : " people fawned on him like a prince . "

谢国忠是一个独立的经济学家。

Andy Xie is an independent economist .

根据谢国忠的观点，弱势美元对全球经济的影响是扩张性的。

In Xie 's view , the weak dollar was expansionary for the global economy .

独立经济学家谢国忠说道，如果再不控制物价，北京会面临社会动荡的危险。

Independent economist , Andy Xie , says Beijing risks unrest if prices are not contained .

与罗奇一样，谢国忠有着令人印象深刻的履历，是一位备受敬重的经济学家和才智超群的学者。

Xie , like Roach , is a highly regarded economist with impressive credentials and a fierce intellect .

不过，谢国忠表示，正是这种过热增长，使中国面临着硬着陆的风险。

Yet it is precisely this growth , Xie says , that risks a hard landing for China .

谢国忠和佩蒂斯等经济学家都警告，各国政府在削减经济刺激计划时都必须小心谨慎。

Economists such as Xie and Pettis warn that governments must move carefully as they wind down stimulus packages .

谢国忠因对中国经济发表言辞犀利的研究报告，在金融和媒体领域赢得较高威望。

Mr Xie earned a high profile in financial and media circles for his provocative research notes on the Chinese economy .

谢国忠表示，美元充斥系统造成流动性泛滥和中国压低人民币汇率交互作用，将产生严重的后果。

Xie says the combination of US dollars flooding the system with liquidity and China holding its currency down will be potent .

我个人认为谢国忠过度夸大了高房价和高空置率的危险性。

Xie overestimates the dangers of high prices and empty apartments , because he wrongly dismisses the role leverage plays in causing bubbles .

10多年来，目前在上海做独立经济学家的谢国忠一直预言中国经济将遭遇大劫，但最近几个月，奇怪的事情发生了。

For more than a decade , Xie , now an independent economist based in Shanghai , has been predicting apocalypse for the Chinese economy but in recent months something strange has happened .

谢国忠表示，两位数、甚至三位数利率的诱惑，吸引投资者把资金投向地下放贷市场或理财产品，而不是股市。

The lure of double or even triple-digit interest rates has attracted investors to place their money in underground lending markets or wealth management products , rather than in the stock market , says Mr Xie .

谢国忠表示，国资委及其它政府机构今年以来所采取的行动，已经大大提高了外资银行在华销售衍生品的难度，并将切断一块主要的利润来源。

Mr Xie says actions taken this year by SASAC and other government bodies have already made selling derivatives in China much more difficult for foreign banks , and would cut off a major source of profits .

当代年轻人和他们的父辈就像是两个不同世纪的人，谢国忠表示。他们想在大城市定居，而且与其它国家的同龄人一样，期待获得有趣、高薪的工作。

Today 's young adults and their parents may as well be from different centuries , says Mr Xie . They want to settle down in big cities and have interesting , well-paying jobs – just like their counterparts in other countries .

来自上海的独立经济学家谢国忠，建议说，刺激消费最快的方法就是政府把自己手中国有企业的股份分给个人，并迫使这些企业加大分红力度。

Andy Xie , an independent economist based in Shanghai , suggests that the quickest way to boost consumption would be for the government to distribute the shares that it holds in state-owned enterprises to households , and to force those firms to pay larger dividends .