蔡昉

人口与劳动经济研究所所长蔡昉估计，中国的潜在国内生产总值（GDP）增长率将在2016到2020年间跌至6.1%。

Cai Fang , director of the Institute of Population and Labour Economics , estimates China 's potential gross domestic product growth will fall to 6.1 per cent from 2016-20 .

中国社会科学院（ChineseAcademyofSocialSciences）研究员蔡昉的一篇论文称，“自2004年以来，沿海地区的民工荒逐渐演变为普遍的招工难和涨薪潮”。

A paper by Cai Fang of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences states that " labour shortage has become rampant throughout the country since it broke out in coastal areas in 2004 . In 2011 , manufacturing enterprises came across unprecedented and universal difficulties in recruiting labour . "

蔡昉的论文给出了令人信服的证据，证明其结果是实际薪资上涨和利润缩水。

Mr Fang 's paper gives compelling evidence of the consequent rise in real wages and shrinking profits .

蔡昉说：从2005年到2010年，农民工人数的增长率是4%。

Mr Cai said : From 2005 to 2010 , the growth rate of migrant workers was 4 per cent .

蔡昉，该报告的笔者之一，敦促政府增加医疗保健和教育上的投资。

Cai , one of the writers of the report , urged the government to increase investment in healh care and education .

根据学者蔡昉建立的模型推算，中国经济增长中的1/4可以归功于人口红利。

According to scholars , Cai established model projections , China 's economic growth in the1 / 4 can be attributed to the demographic dividend .

蔡昉说，允许农民工享受城市福利的改革可以扩大劳动力规模，进而支持中国经济增长。

Reforms that allow migrants to tap urban benefits could boost the size of the labor force , supporting China 's growth , Mr. Cai said .

但大多数经济学家（包括劳动力问题研究方面最知名的经济学家之一蔡昉）相信真正的比例要小得多。

But most economists , such as Cai Fang , one of the most prominent economists on labour issues , believe that the real number is much smaller .

但蔡昉说，负激励效应已经开始出现苗头，尤其是工薪阶层家庭的学生，他们觉得学费和工资损失的代价太大。

Cai said , myopia is already starting to set in , particularly for working-class students for whom the combination of tuition and lost wages can seem too large a sacrifice .

蔡昉说：“从2005年到2010年，农民工人数的增长率是4%。去年这一增长率仅为1.3%。今年这个数字可能出现缩减。”

Mr Cai said : " From 2005 to 2010 , the growth rate of migrant workers was 4 per cent . Last year it was only 1.3 per cent . Maybe this year it will contract . "

中国社科院人口与劳动经济研究所所长蔡昉说，中国户籍制度使2亿多农民工无法全部进入劳动力市场参与就业。中国户籍制度是一个社会管理体系，将医疗和养老等福利与居民出生地联系在一起。

China 's hukou system -- a social management system that ties benefits like health care and pensions to a person 's place of birth -- prevents 200 million-plus migrant workers from fully participating in the labor market , said Cai Fang , director of the Institute of Population Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences .