王志浩

汇丰银行的董事长王志浩（StephenGreen）承认，全球金融体系在2007年经历了“极度的冲击”。

HSBC Chairman Stephen Green admits the global financial system had come under what he calls'extreme strain'in2007 .

渣打银行（standardchartered）经济学家王志浩（stephengreen）在上海表示，刺激方案是“一种抒发抱负的目标”，而非一张详尽的蓝图。

The stimulus plan is " an aspirational target " rather than a detailed blueprint , says Stephen Green , economist at Standard Chartered in Shanghai .

王志浩用国内生产总值（GDP）来衡量变化大小，并设计出“中国年”表。

By using gross domestic product as a measure of change , he devised a'China years'table .

但王志浩也很快指出GDP并不能解释一切问题，而自己只是想找点乐子。

Green is quick to note that'GDP can 't explain everything , 'adding that he was just trying to have some fun .

中国外汇储备似乎已变成吸取全球流动性的某种巨大的黑洞，渣打银行（StandardChartered）经济学家王志浩（StephenGreen）表示。

China 's FX reserves seem to have turned into some kind of massive black hole for the world 's liquidity , says Stephen Green , economist at Standard Chartered .

“他们能够将繁荣保持下去，这将是有史以来最软的软着陆，”渣打银行（standardchartered）首席中国经济学家王志浩（stephengreen）表示。

" They can keep the boom going and this will be the softest landing in history , " said Stephen Green , chief China economist at Standard Chartered Bank .

然而，渣打银行（standardchartered）经济学家王志浩（stephengreen）预测，中国今年的经常账户盈余将会高于国内生产总值（gdp）的8%，这个数字仍然极高。

However Stephen Green , an economist at Standard Chartered , forecasts the current account surplus this year will be above 8 per cent of GDP , still extremely high .

据渣打银行经济学家王志浩（StephenGreen）估计，房地产投资在中国国内生产总值（GDP）中的占比为8%，在中国这一全球第二大经济体中占据了相当大的份额。

Property investment accounts for 8 % of the gross domestic product , a large chunk of the world 's No. 2 economy , estimates Standard Chartered economist Stephen Green .

王志浩（StephenGreen）是渣打银行（StandardCharteredBank）驻上海的高级经济学家。他经常和来访的朋友一道惊异于上海的发展速度，难以用语言形容这种变化。

Stephen Green , a senior economist at Standard Chartered Bank in Shanghai , continually found himself marveling with visiting friends at the pace of change and struggling to describe what he saw .

“这是你可料到的、官方在开始收紧政策之前首先会说的话，”渣打银行（standardchartered）驻上海经济学家王志浩（stephengreen）说。

" This is the first thing you would expect the authorities to say before they begin to moderate policy , " said Stephen Green , economist at Standard Chartered in Shanghai .

渣打银行（standardchartered）中国经济学家王志浩（stephengreen）确信，至少在未来两年内，中国将继续让人民币以每年4%至5%的幅度升值。

Stephen Green , China economist at Standard Chartered , has little doubt Beijing will continue to let the renminbi appreciate by an annual 4 or 5 per cent for at least the next two years .

这份由渣打银行经济学家王志浩（StephenGreen）撰写的报告引述一位没有透露身份的中国银行家的话，描给了给中小企业（通常也是民营企业）发放贷款需要经历的繁琐流程。

The report , authored by bank economist Stephen Green , quoted an unidentified Chinese banker describing the laborious process involved in making a loan to SMEs - or small - and medium-sized enterprises which are often privately owned .

对领导层来说，关键将是在促增长和反增长的改革之间把握平衡，并以合适的顺序推行这些改革，渣打（StandardChartered）大中华区研究部主管王志浩（StephenGreen）表示。

The key for the leadership will be balancing the pro - and anti-growth ref # 173 ; or # 173 ; ms and implementing them in the right sequen # 173 ; ce , says Stephen Green , head of research for greater China at Standard Chartered .

王志浩警告称，“迟早”这个表态不太可能让华盛顿方面感到满意。

" Soon " is unlikely to be good enough for Washington , warns Mr Green .

王志浩认为，2008年中国贸易顺差将继续扩大，不过增速会有所放缓。

The trade surplus will also continue to swell in 2008 , albeit at a slower pace , Mr Green argued .

“不知道这场游戏怎样才能不以悲剧收场，”王志浩表示。

" It is hard to see how this game can continue without an unhappy ending , " says Mr Green .

在研究了各种经济足迹后，王志浩表示，他得出的结论是，信贷增长或许才是最佳的先行指标。

After all this economic sleuth work , Green says he concluded that credit growth was probably the best leading indicator after all .

“2004年的时候，或许他们有点慌，”王志浩表示，“但他们现在没有。”

" Maybe they panicked a little bit in 2004 , " Mr Green says . " But they are not panicking now . "

渣打银行，中国的经济学家王志浩指出，在二月初，至少有七个城市在看2009年的土地价格增加两倍。

Stephen Green , a China economist at Standard Chartered noted in a report in early February that at least seven cities saw land prices triple in2009 .

王志浩表示，美国经济低迷显然已激发了公众的愤怒情绪，并指出，人们对自由贸易的潜在担忧在与日俱增。

Mr Green says the US downturn has clearly created an angry public , and notes that underlying unease about free trade is coming to the fore .

王志浩则打算利用挖掘机和轮式装载机的销量以及水泥产量作为线索，用来判断未来数月的投资动向。

Green sought to use data on sales of excavators and wheel-loaders and cement production as clues to the way investment is headed over the next few months .

王志浩表示：如果中国到下个月仍不采取明显举措，停止盯住美元，华盛顿方面就有可能实施贸易制裁。

If China does not make an obvious move away from its US dollar peg in the next month , Washington could impose trade sanctions , says Mr Green .

王志浩谈到，对于那些有助于抑制通胀但却威胁到经济增长的措施，比如进一步加息，决策层也是迟迟下不了决心。

There is also increasing reluctance to take measures that would help counter inflation but put growth at risk , such as further increases in interest rates , he says .

中国正进入一个棘手的阶段，通胀在未来几个月仍将高于5%，但增长将继续减速，王志浩表示。

China is entering an awkward phase now where inflation will stay higher than 5 per cent in the coming months but growth will continue to decelerate , Mr Green said .

王志浩指出，热钱流出现象可能已经持续了许多年，但过去被资本流入的势头盖过了，所以看起来不明显。

Mr Green notes that it is possible that hot money has been flowing out for years but in the past it has been overwhelmed by inflows and therefore was less visible .

更复杂的是，王志浩发现，一些家庭也参与到这类机器的投资中，原因是把这类机器出租个几年，回报胜于银行存款。

To complicate matters , Green found that households had invested in such machinery on the basis that a few years ' renting it out would provide a better return than a bank account .

水泥产量的增长一般来说是个很好的指标，但王志浩也发现，这个指标与实际投资增长是同步的，所以不能用于预测未来半年的投资动向。

Growth in cement production , generally a good proxy , was also found to march in step with real investment growth so was not as useful in predicting how the next six months would play out .

王志浩表示，总体上，到2009年底，中国所持美国国债占该国外汇储备总量的比率，看上去仍在正常的历史范围内，约占总储量的68%。

Overall , it looks like China 's US holdings , as a ratio of its total holdings , are still within the normal historical range of about 68 per cent of its total reserves by the end of 2009 , Mr Green said .

即使北京方面并不担忧美国财政状况及/或美元，欧元市场的收益率也可能具有足够吸引力，推动中国将少量储备投入欧元资产，王志浩表示。

Even if Beijing were not concerned about the US fiscal situation and / or the US dollar , the yields on offer in the euro market would likely be attractive enough for it to diversify into Europe at the margin , Mr Green said .