中等收入陷阱

提高南京自主创新能力的新制度经济学分析&一个跨越中等收入陷阱的视角

A New Institutional Economics Analysis of Improving Nanjing Capability of Independent Innovation & A Perspective of Striding Over " the Middle Income Trap "

2001年，我国人均收入水平达到1000美元，并于2010年人均收入顺利增加到4432美元，即将面临中等收入陷阱。

The income per capita of China is $ 1000in2001and has increased to $ 4432 . Nowadays , China is facing " middle income trap " .

世界银行（worldbank）和其它机构警告，中国需要展开新的改革，以避免落入中等收入陷阱，发展停滞。

The world bank and others have warned China it needs to embark on fresh reforms in order to avoid falling into a middle-income trap and seeing its development stall .

长期以来，经济学家一直担心一些在相对较低的人均GDP水平上放缓的经济体跌入中等收入陷阱，并为提高生产率提出了各种解决办法。

Economists have been worrying over the middle-income trap of economies slowing at relatively low rates of per capita GDP for a long time , and various solutions to increasing productivity have been mooted .

东亚要摆脱中等收入陷阱

WB : Extricate east Asia from the Medium-Sized Income Trap

这两个国家还有可能掉入中等收入陷阱。

Those two countries may also be caught in the middle-income trap .

此外，中国并不一定有能力避开中等收入陷阱。

Moreover , China 's ability to escape the middle-income trap is not guaranteed .

近两年，中等收入陷阱问题引发了社会的广泛关注。

In recent years ," middle-income trap " was concerned strongly by our society .

走出“中等收入陷阱”的一种方法就是尝试着跳背过技术领先者。

One way out of this " middle-income trap " is by trying to leapfrog the technology leaders .

从刘易斯拐点到中等收入陷阱，许多险滩需要突破。

There are many difficulties to overcome from the " Lewis turning point " to " middle-income trap " .

在理论上，探讨了消费对跨越中等收入陷阱的影响路径。

And a discussion on the impact that consumption has on crossing the " middle-income trap " was provided in terms of theory .

许多有名的学者警告道：中国很可能成为“中等收入陷阱”的牺牲品。这一现象在许多发展中国家发生过。

Prominent academics warn that China could fall victim to the dreaded " middle-income trap ," which has derailed many a developing nation .

如果建立不起这种制度，国家将落入中等收入陷阱&阿根廷、委内瑞拉和前苏联的经历就证明了这一点。

In their absence , countries get stuck in a middle-income trap – as evidenced by Argentina , Venezuela and the former Soviet Union .

从过去片面重视城市发展转变为统筹城乡协调发展，才能使中国跨跃中等收入陷阱。

Change from one-sided emphasis on urban development in the past into the coordinated development of both urban and rural , and Leap middle-income trap .

第三个目标，即“产业结构升级”，将有助于中国继续保持生产率增长，避免中等收入陷阱。

The third : " Upgrading the industrial structure " will ensure that productivity growth continues and China stays away from the " middle income trap " .

关于亚洲能否逃脱中等收入陷阱的讨论，大多围绕如何向制造业价值链上方移动，或者发展更多的服务产业。

Most discussion about whether Asia can escape the middle-income trap revolves around how to move up the manufacturing value chain , or develop more service industries .

如果中国不想落入所谓的中等收入陷阱，它就需要把金融业提升到远比现在先进的水平，为经济增长提供动力。

If it is to avoid falling into the so-called middle income trap , it needs to develop far deeper financial sophistication to power its own growth .

这是他们目标的一部分，他们的目标是，通过提高经济驱动力质量，跨过中等收入陷阱，实现进一步繁荣。

It 's part of their aim of overcoming the middle income country trap to become prosperous by improving the quality of the growth drivers in the economy .

中等收入陷阱是发展中国家经济社会发展所面临的共同难题，马来西亚也面临相同的压力和困境。

" Middle-income trap " is a common strategic challenge for transition countries in the process of economic and social development . Malaysia is also facing the same pressure and difficulty .

如果我国仍然停留在现阶段的增长模式中，并且没能解决目前内部和外部基础性的可持续发展瓶颈，那么一个中等收入陷阱将会成为现实。

If China stays the course with its current growth model and fails to address mounting internal and external sustainability constraints , then a middle-income trap could become a very real possibility .

概要：世界银行行长金高中国提防陷入中等收入陷阱，即在试图过渡到一个更稳定的经济增长模式时经济的增长速度变慢。

Zoellick says world leaders have let fiscal and monetary policies dominate the discussion on economic growth * But they now need to turn their focus on how to create sustained growth .

化解各种矛盾和风险，跨越中等收入陷阱，实现现代化，根本要靠发展，发展必须有合理的增长速度。

In order to defuse problems and risks , avoid falling into the middle-income trap , and achieve modernization , China must rely on development , and development requires an appropriate growth rate .

当中国试图做一件其他国家从未做过的事情让超过10亿的庞大人口同时跨过中等收入陷阱时，这些问题就毫无疑问的被放大了。

These are questions that will undoubtedly be raised as China seeks to do what no other country has done , which is to overcome the middle income trap for a billion-plus population .

转向由技术进步推动增长的模式并非易事，这也是为什么有那么多国家陷入了所谓的“中等收入陷阱”的原因之一。

The difficulty of making the transition to growth driven by technical progress is one reason why so many countries have fallen into what has come to be called the " middle-income trap . "

我国学者针对中等收入陷阱进行了一系列的研究，认为其主要原因是中等收入的国家在产业结构转型和科技进步两方面受到发达国家和低收入国家的双重压力。

Chinese scholars for " middle income trap ", a series of studies , mainly in middle-income countries by the dual pressures of the developed countries and low-income countries in industrial restructuring and technological progress .

这种选举结果无法赋予纳吉布多少权力来领导马来西亚步入下一个经济发展阶段，带领国家走出中等收入陷阱。

This is not the sort of result that gives Mr Najib much of a mandate to take Malaysia to the next level of economic development and lead it out of a middle income trap .

但不断扩大的收入分配差距却为我国顺利跨越中等收入陷阱平添阻碍，其中尤以城乡居民收入差距对于全国收入差距的贡献率最高。

However widening income distribution disparity impede that our country successfully span the " middle-income trap " . In particular , the income gap between urban and rural residents has the highest contribution rate of the national income gap .

特别是与维持现状相比。如果维持现状，中国很可能掉进中等收入陷阱，到2030年，人均收入最高仅会达到美国的25%左右。

Especially when compared to a status-quo scenario , in which China could very well get stuck in the middle-income trap and income per person would peak at around 25 percent of that in the United States in 2030 .

值得注意的是，理论模型为一些发展中国家陷入中等收入陷阱的现象给出了一种新的解释。大量经验文献分析了贸易对企业出口产品质量升级的影响。

It is worth noting that the theoretical model gives a new explanation for why some developing countries caught in the middle-income trap . A large number of empirical literature have analyzed the impact of international trade on product quality upgrading .

作者列出了增速降低的两个可能原因：要么中国陷入了工业化失败的中等收入陷阱；要么中国正在努力应对增速的自然回落，当一个经济体开始追赶发达经济体时，会出现这种回落。

The authors note two possible reasons for the decline : either China has fallen into the middle income trap of aborted industrialisation ; or it is managing the natural landing that occurs when an economy begins to catch-up with advanced economies .